Researchers at the University of Wisconsin mapped the net migration rate for every U.S. county from 2000-2010. The purple counties gained more people than they lost, while the orange counties lost more than they gained. The darker the color, the greater the change. What stands out?
Compared to the rest of the South, Mississippi looks as orange as an Oompa-Loompa with a spray tan:
The inability to retain and attract people who have the option to live elsewhere is, and always has been, a?defining challenge for Mississippi.?The economic potential lost from decades of brain drain is incalculable. Climbing from the bottom of national rankings will require Mississippi to import talent and ideas from outside the state. Migration alone won’t solve all of our problems, but Mississippi cannot become wealthier, healthier, and better educated without it.
Our neighboring states caught on long ago: the South has been the country’s fastest-growing region for much of the past 50 years. Migration to the Sunbelt is typically?explained by a combination of warm climate, rising wages, and cheap housing. Mississippi possesses each of these attributes, yet we were just one of two Southeastern states to experience net out-migration over the last decade.* Roughly?two-thirds of the Mississippi’s 82 counties lost more people than they gained. A majority saw over 5 percent of their residents move away. Many of these people relocated within the state, though a large proportion left altogether.?What gives?
Simply put, Mississippi has too few urban and economic magnets to keep the people we have, much less bring in new ones. More people than ever seek out metropolitan areas for professional and cultural opportunities that rural life cannot offer. Most of the migration in the South clustered around big cities: Nashville, Atlanta, Raleigh, Dallas, Orlando, and Washington, D.C. Notably, all of Mississippi’s purple counties are located within an hour’s drive of Memphis, Jackson, New Orleans, or Mobile.?On the flip side, Mississippi’s most isolated counties experienced the highest rate of outmigration.
Unless we invest in the growth of our urban areas, America’s fourth most rural state will continue to lose people. Only 46 percent of Mississippians live in an area with more than 50,000 residents, compared to 85 percent nationally and 75 percent in the Southeast. To put it in perspective, Jackson would only be the fifth-largest city in Alabama.**
Often,?who?moves in is just as significant as how many.?The most successful Southern cities have upgraded their talent pools by catering to highly-educated migrants.?Jobs are the primary reason for relocation, but Mississippi’s cities don’t offer many opportunities for skilled workers. Jackson’s economy has more in common with declining Rust Belt cities than dynamic Sunbelt boomtowns. Jackson’s largest employers are government, healthcare, and education — valuable services that create a stable middle class but don’t allow for the productivity growth that attracts waves of new migrants. The expansion of cities such as Raleigh and Huntsville has been fueled by high-paying, innovative STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) industries. Of America’s 100 largest metro areas, Jackson ranks 85th in the share of jobs in STEM fields and 98th in patents per worker. Jackson’s lone high-tech foray into the Fortune 500, Worldcom, imploded spectacularly ten years ago.
As a result, most of the people who move to Mississippi look like the people who are already here. The proportion of newcomers with a college degree (26.8 percent) ranks 48th in the country. The proportion with a graduate degree (10.5 percent) ranks 46th. Their median income ($16,789) comes in 43rd, and share of migrants born overseas (7.4 percent) ranks 47th. Meanwhile, many of the students who earn degrees from Mississippi’s universities leave to take better jobs elsewhere, subsidizing the economies of surrounding states and creating a skills deficit back home.
To change that, we must first figure out what Mississippi’s purple counties are doing right. It is no coincidence that the places attracting newcomers have more in common with regional counterparts than with the rest of the state. DeSoto and Madison counties are indistinguishable from suburban Atlanta or Nashville. The college town of Oxford draws more comparisons to Chapel Hill, North Carolina, or Athens, Georgia, than to nearby Grenada or Batesville. South Mississippi identifies as much with the greater Gulf region as it does with the rest of Mississippi.
These places possess one more common thread: they are home to some of the state’s best public schools. DeSoto Co., Madison Co., Rankin Co., Oxford — these districts routinely fall within the top tier of state rankings. Good schools don’t guarantee a positive migration rate, but each of Mississippi’s purple counties had at least one “A” or “B” rated district last year.
If Mississippi wants to turn from a skills exporter to a skills importer, we should follow the lead of our Southern neighbors and support in the growth of our cities, foster high-skilled STEM industries, and — by any means necessary — improve our public education system. The status quo will only leave us further behind.
*The other, Louisiana, might have been in the black if not for Katrina.
**To be fair, Jackson’s metro population would rank second in Alabama. It is still only half the size of Birmingham’s metro area.
The “orange” counties are not only losing younger people to opportunities elsewhere, they also have a growing population of seniors who have nowhere to go. In between those groups are the population middle who, whenever possible, are moving into nearby counties that have more to offer their families.
Combined with a reduced number of births, it’s difficult to see much of a future for anyone unless we first deal with the unemployed, underemployed and those beyond working age who are mired down in the poverty of the orange counties.
Growing the “purples” has merit; but, there is much preparation needed. Otherwise, “the more things change, the more they stay the same”.
Great map!
You’re absolutely right, Jane. I’m planning to do some follow-up articles to dig into the migration challenge even deeper, especially the “quicksand” effect for those who are left behind.
Great Article! I think we have long suspected this was happening but seeing the data as presented here is really eye opening. The solutions will not be easy, because it really puts us in a “chicken/egg” type dilemma. We need the bright, educated people here to attract new industries and economic development opportunities. But we need the opportunities/industry for bright, educated people to stay or move here.
Again, this is not going to be easy, but the starting point should be, as you pointed out, education. Education is the closest thing we have to a magic bullet. When the quality of education improves, all other problems start to diminish.
In the mean time, we must continue aggressively recruit outside industry into our state, like we did with the Nissan and Toyota plants. The Toyota plant is a fantastic example not only for the immediate jobs it created but also because we took it one step farther and had Toyota partner with Ole Miss to train students for the high level, high skill, complex jobs they offer at the plan.
Can you define migrant for me? I’m hoping you are using the term to mean someone(regardless of ethnicity) who comes or goes from the state.
Yes. It’s a reference to mobility, not ethnicity.
Were you getting ready to start wringing your hands, Holley? Poor thing. FYI, the word “migrant” doesn’t imply an ethnicity or a race whatsoever. The fact that that’s the first thing you thought of indicates your own racial prejudices showing through.
You don’t know me and should not make blanket judgements.
Nice article Jake! You’ve hit the nail on the head. In Mississippi, we have to do more than focus our energies on single issues. It’s not enough to simply say that our state government should focus on recruiting new, one-time investment, employment opportunities to the state. We have to focus on creating an atmosphere that will bring new advanced enterprises to the state, while simultaneously ensuring that we are educating Mississippi’s children and its workforce for the STEM jobs of the future.
Too bad the thought leaders aren’t the actual elected leaders.
Great article. This really is our greatest issue…so many people go to college and then just leave the state. It’s a catch-22…people want to move to a state with more opportunities/cities/etc and thus deprive the state of the people and resources it needs to get better. We have tons of potential, and we just need to tap into it
I stayed for 10 years and worked hard to change it before I eventually left, but the powers that be worked harder to keep it the same.
There is another side to what looks like growth in two of the four counties showing the most in migration. DeSoto and Madison counties gain most of their population at the expense of the cities nearby, Memphis and Jackson. Suburbanization only looks like growth, economically speaking. It represents a transfer of wealth, human capital, and market share out of the center of the metropolitan areas. This weakens the city in its role as urban center by draining off some of the critical mass of population and economic activity that is the key to job creation and innovation. To make matters worse, those resources are not reorganized into new centers, but dispersed into unproductive low density settings in the suburbs. Loss of population from the cities is even more damaging to the overall economy than loss from rural areas, which in many cases represents the efficiency of human capital going where it can be more productive.
I appreciate your comment, Pat. I couldn’t agree more. Some early data show that Jackson has begun to add population again — mostly due to remigration from the suburbs. I’m hopeful that will become a long-term trend. Keep on the lookout for an article about this soon. Thanks for reading!
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You stated that our Universities educate most people that leave. This is because our Universities, including graduate and professional schools, recruit people with very few ties to Mississippi and/or do not fill needed areas.
In out example specifically, my wife, who was born and raised in MS, was not accepted to UM Medical, attended Medical School outside of the state at a private DO school. We understand they want the best and brightest and it’s a competitive process. Although, when she finished Medical school, she was also not selected for residency in the OBGYN program at UM medical. This is even more important. It seems far to often we are searching for the next big researcher rather than focusing on searching for the next big solution to MS. I applaud our effort on the national and world stage but our own back yard is struggling
I sometimes feel as if well educated transplants are shunned because they threaten the local power structure. I can only anecdotally support this. While the article above cites many important points requisite for growth here, there is a cultural shift that must happen before or in tandem with any other effort. The people of Mississippi are wonderful, but this is still somewhat of a closed society, especially in rural areas. Power and control must be shared with new comers to give them a stake in the community. As a state with such limited resources and fierce internal competition for them, I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
As a MS native who’s lived outside the state for a decade, I couldn’t agree more with your comment. But there’s a corollary, as well. I work in sustainability management and assessment, for a similarly focused entrepreneurship incubator. Now, when I go home to my south MS roots, I hear (sometimes jokingly, sometimes not), “well you’ve been gone too long,” and “you’re more Yankee than Mississippi,” or “you’ll have to stop talking about that communist sustainability crap” before you move back home. So no matter how much good I might be able to do by returning to my home (as a 5th generation Mississippian, I do still think of it as ‘home’) and helping people understand ways to live more lightly on the earth, I don’t feel welcome there, either.
Jake – just one slight correction, Petal is in Forrest County which is losing population not Lamar County which is gaining.
Although your point about education still stands as I believe the city of Petal itself is gaining population even as Forrest county is losing. Also, the Oak Grove school system (Lamar County) is very good and certainly a draw to the west. A lot of people who work for the two universities and the medical clinics and hospitals live in Lamar county and commute into Hattiesburg. There has been an incredible westward expansion over the 16 years that we have lived here.
One Major problem is our backwards vaccine laws.I know pharmacists teachers and doctors among others who have left this state because the government and pharmaceutical companies are exploiting the ignorance and lack of education here by not allowing parents any right when it comes to the 49 vaccinations for 15 different diseases in the first 5 years of A child’s life. People are not only moving away because of this, but when they look at moving to Mississippi and they learn about our vaccination policies they refused to come and subject their families to this kind of bureaucratic tyranny.
48 other states allow parents to have religious and philosophical exemptions from 49 vaccinations for 15 diseases in the first 5 years starting on the first day of a child’s life. Mississippi does not.
We relocated to Hattiesburg when my husband accepted a newspaper publisher position there, and we left Mississippi 3 years later because of the outdated vaccine exemption laws. Most every other state allows parents to opt out of vaccines and still utilize school, while Mississippi does not. So we, as educated people seeking the ability to make informed medical decisions for our children, left MS so that we could have the freedom to do so.
…and behind one voice, there are at least a hundred more who are silent in the same boat.
I would very much like to leave Mississippi if it were possible! Our vaccine laws are absolutely criminal. Mississippi and West Virginia are the ONLY two states in the US who do not give parents the right to choose whats best for their child regarding vaccines. Every other state in America can delay vaccines, selectively vaccinate, or not vaccinate at all, and their rights to send their children to school are NOT robbed from them! I am now forced to homeschool my children, unless I comply to the CDC’s insane Vaccine schedule of 49 doses of 15 vaccines by age 4. NOT HAPPENING. Our Mississippi House of Representative Health committee chairman says Mississippi isn’t ready for this change yet. STEP IT UP, MISSISSIPPI!
Not be negative or disheartening to your opinion, but its criminal when parents like to play doctor. Secondly, this conversation was about brain drain but I would love to see where you got your medical facts on why all vaccines are harmful. I would prefer medical references and not social sites but I see you are passionate about the subject so I am just curious as to how you came to a strong opinion. One strong enough to home school your child.
We are educated, live in NY and are looking for rural places to relocate too. I homeschool anyway but this crosses Mississippi off our list.
Mississippi’s mandated vaccine requirements for children who go to daycare and school are running off educated parents who can afford to move or are in a position to transfer to states that respect a parent’s right to make medical decisions for their own children. 48 states give parents some say in this — only Mississippi and West Virginia refuse to give parents any say at all. Many parents who believe in vaccination but want to space them out, or who witnessed their child have an adverse reaction to a particular vaccine and have decided to forego the boosters for that one in the future, are out of luck in Mississippi. In Mississippi, vaccines are one-size-fits-all, and educated, employable parents don’t have to put up with that. They can work, pay taxes, and raise their children in one of the 48 states that respects their right to make important medical decisions for their own children.
I’m speaking out as another educated mississippian who’s husband owns and runs a successful business that contributes greatly to MS taxes. We are working hard to make a move by mid 2015. Mississippi’s archaic vaccine law plays a primary role in our leaving Mississippi. I currently homeschool my children and enjoy doing so, but homeschooling should be a choice, not a consequence of educated, deliberate parenting.
As CoDirector for Mississippi Parents for Vaccine Rights, I can attest to the fact that this is a VERY REAL ramification of Mississippi’s bringing-up-the-national-rear vaccine law. I speak to desperate-for-help families weekly from all over our state who just moved here to learn their children cannot attend school or daycare…many find a way to leave; many never choose to come based solely on our law. Others, simply leave. My family can’t get out of Mississippi fast enough and I suspect my mother will follow us to be with her grandchildren.
DeSoto County is purple not because DeSoto County used to be so cool (or is now), but because Memphis is the literal armpit of the South, and anyone who can afford a car and the extra five dollars in gas each day and isn’t functionally stupid won’t live in Memphis for damned near anything. I mean, buying property in Memphis has to be one of the single stupidest things a human being can do. Regardless of where you choose to risk your life living in Memphis, your neighborhood will be encroached upon, and your house will become worthless.
The reason that Madison County is purple is the same reason that DeSoto County is purple. The relative success of those two counties is due to two things and two things only: 1 – White Flight, and White Flight. It isn’t that Madison County is doing anything particularly right or wrong. They just happened to be next door to Hinds County, and someone has to run the government, and apparently the 270,000 welfare recipients there aren’t qualified, and no one who lives in Madison County wants to live next door to them. Surprising, I guess.
Lamar and Stone Counties have some industry, and decent unemployment rates, but again, look at the demographics. That’s the story here, not what these counties are doing right.
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Yeah, I’m pretty sure “because I didn’t want to vaccinate my kids” is really low on the list of reasons why educated people leave the state.
Asinine, the big rush to post anti-vaccination stuff on a decent post.
I’m pretty sure that “strong vaccination laws” are not responsible for Mississippi’s brain drain, guys.
What if we transformed those areas losing population; not as places to work but places to live? So many of these slowly dying rural areas still have good housing stock, for example. So you could start there and add public transportation from the community where you live to the larger community where you work. You needs other things, such as parks and libraries; but, these great places to live and raise a family may come with recreational options like great hunting and fishing. In other words, do we just let these communities just fold up and die or die trying save them; or, do we make them great places to live. Think about it!